Apollo Economist Sees Zero AI Job Loss Evidence Despite CEO Layoff Claims

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk published a blog post Friday stating he sees 'zero evidence' of AI-related job losses. The claim directly challenges a growing list of corporate announcements where CEOs have cited AI adoption as a factor in layoffs or hiring freezes.

The simple read is that Sløk is dismissing AI-driven unemployment fears as overblown. The better market read is that this is a positioning signal from a major asset manager with a $700 billion portfolio. Apollo (APO) carries an Alpha Score of 47/100 and a Mixed label in the Financials sector. If Sløk is correct, the current market discount applied to labor-intensive sectors–retail, logistics, and business process outsourcing–may be excessive. If he is wrong, companies that have already priced in AI disruption could face a valuation reset as the true cost of automation becomes visible.

Torsten Sløk's 'Zero Evidence' Claim vs. CEO Layoff Narratives

Sløk's argument rests on a specific mechanism: AI is currently acting as a complement to labor, not a substitute. In his view, the technology increases productivity per worker, which in turn raises demand for workers to handle the expanded output. This is the same dynamic that played out during previous automation waves, from the industrial revolution to the internet era. The key difference today is that AI adoption is still in its early stages, and the productivity gains are not yet large enough to trigger mass displacement.

What would confirm Sløk's thesis is a sustained rise in labor force participation rates and wage growth in sectors that have adopted AI tools. What would weaken it is a wave of corporate restructuring announcements that explicitly tie headcount reductions to AI implementation, without a corresponding increase in hiring elsewhere.

The tension between Sløk's view and CEO commentary creates a decision point for investors. Several large technology and media companies have cited AI as a reason for layoffs in 2024, including Google, Microsoft, and Duolingo. Sløk argues that these layoffs are more likely driven by post-pandemic overhiring, interest rate normalization, and cost-cutting cycles–not AI substitution. He points to aggregate JOLTS data and Bureau of Labor Statistics reports showing no structural shift in job openings or quits rates that would indicate AI-driven displacement.

For investors, the practical question is whether to trust the macro data or the corporate anecdotes. If Sløk is right, the current sell-off in staffing firms like Robert Half (RHI) and ManpowerGroup (MAN) may be overdone. If the CEOs are right, those same stocks could face further downside as AI adoption accelerates.

What This Means for Apollo Global Management's Positioning

Apollo's own exposure to this debate is significant. The firm manages large credit and private equity portfolios that include investments in business services, logistics, and financial technology–all sectors where AI disruption is a key risk factor. Sløk's public stance effectively signals that Apollo is not pricing in a labor-disruption premium in its underwriting. That could either be a contrarian opportunity or a blind spot, depending on how the data evolves over the next 12 to 18 months.

The next concrete marker to watch is the September jobs report and the Q3 earnings calls from major staffing and outsourcing companies. If those calls show a clear pattern of AI-related revenue declines or client losses, Sløk's thesis will face its first real test. Until then, the debate remains unresolved, and the market is pricing in a middle ground that may not hold.

For a full breakdown of Apollo's current positioning, see the APO stock page. For broader market context, visit the stock market analysis section.