Altcoin Traders Outgain Large Caps 6.6x, Three-Quarters of DEX Traders Lose

Altcoin traders saw median profits 3 to 6.6 times larger than large cap traders across a seven-year CoinGecko study. Nearly three-quarters of Ethereum DEX traders are now losing money.

The report, titled “Trading Majors vs. Altcoins: Ethereum DEX Trader Profitability, 2020-2026,” analyzed about 200 Ethereum-tradeable tokens drawn from the top 500 by 2026 market cap, excluding stablecoins. CoinGecko split wallets into two camps. The first group traded only the top 10 tokens by market cap. The second group ventured into tokens ranked 11 through 200.

Across six of the seven years studied, altcoin traders posted median profit-and-loss outcomes between 3 and 6.6 times those of majors-only traders. In 2021, the best year for both groups, majors traders recorded a median PnL of $339.21. Altcoin traders hit $2,016.02, roughly six times larger. In 2022, majors traders posted a median loss of $222.18. Altcoin traders lost $733.03, about 3.3 times worse.

The correlation between the two groups' yearly PnL outcomes was 0.975, the study found. At 0.975, both cohorts are essentially riding the same macro waves. Altcoin traders just experience those waves at a much higher amplitude. Moving into smaller tokens does not hedge against macro movements. It leverages up on the same macro movements, the study said.