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Altcoin Index at 37: Why WLD and NEAR Gains Are Not a Season
The altcoin season index needs to cross 76 for a rotation. WLD and NEAR post double-digit gains. Average correlation and BTC dominance, however, tell a different story. Watch for BTC dominance dropping below 55%.
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Market chatter about a looming altcoin season is intensifying. Analysts and traders predict that 2026 will see the biggest altcoin rotation since 2021. Dylan Chan, a data analyst at Binance, posted: "Getting ready for that altcoin season grind." The altcoin season index, however, sits at 37 at press time. That reading is far from the 76-point threshold required to signal a sustained rotation out of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin dominance stands at 60.62%, a level that typically indicates strong BTC leadership. The king coin remains above $75,000, setting a bullish floor for the entire market. Most altcoins still move in line with Bitcoin. The average correlation between altcoins and BTC remains high. Sporadic rallies in a few tokens do not prove decoupling.
The altcoin season index tracks the proportion of top altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin over a 90-day window. A reading of 37 means only 37% of those altcoins are beating BTC. A reading above 75 is the conventional start zone for an altcoin season. At 37, the market is far from that threshold.
Why WLD and NEAR Do Not Confirm a Rotation
Despite these data points, some tokens are delivering double-digit gains. Worldcoin (WLD) rose 23% in the last 24 hours and 45% over the past week. Near Protocol (NEAR) gained 66% in the last week and 15% in the past day. These moves are real. They remain isolated within a narrow set of tokens.
The naive interpretation is that WLD and NEAR confirm the start of a broad altcoin season. The better market read is different. The altcoin index at 37 means the vast majority of altcoins still underperform BTC relative to their own recent history. To trigger a genuine altseason signal, the index must cross 76. That gap of 39 points represents roughly a doubling from current levels. Until that happens, the headline remains Bitcoin season.