Two AMRO economists argue AI computing could reinforce dollar dominance through stablecoin settlement and Treasury recycling. Open USD, backed by 140 firms, is an early example.
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The signing of a 20-year data-centre lease might not look like a monetary event. The concentration of AI compute in dollar-priced infrastructure, combined with the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, could create a new cycle that entrenches dollar dominance, two economists at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) wrote this week.
The petrodollar system that emerged after the 1970s priced a critical global input in dollars. It generated export revenues for oil producers and recycled those dollars into US assets. The same mechanism might now apply to AI compute, the economists argued. Energy powers data centres. Data centres convert electricity into billable computing capacity. As companies sign long-term leases for compute power, this becomes an industrial production input priced in dollars.
The demand side is taking shape. OpenAI's new consulting arm, Deployment Company (DeployCo), plans to embed engineers in client firms to integrate AI into workflows. If successful, compute becomes a recurring operating expense in dollars, the economists noted. The payment rail for this new economy is also forming. OpenAI's partnership with Visa points to a programmable future where AI agents pay for services automatically.
The second channel is stablecoin settlement. The announcement of Open USD, a dollar-pegged stablecoin backed by more than 140 payment, financial and crypto firms, signals that dollar tokens are being positioned for this transformation, the economists wrote. Stablecoin issuers already rank among the largest buyers of US Treasury bills, creating a recycling loop. Dollar invoicing for compute combined with stablecoin settlement would turn technological dependence on US cloud providers into monetary dependence on the dollar.
These developments have direct consequences for countries trying to reduce dollar dependence. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan and South Korea (Asean+3) have sought to settle trade in local currencies and link national payment systems. They have also pooled reserves to protect against dollar shortages. If AI compute becomes a dollar-denominated input, those efforts face a new headwind, the economists said.
The economists recommend a strategic agenda with two pillars: building regional data centres powered by affordable clean energy, and developing local-currency tokenized settlement for agentic commerce. That would reduce dependence on dollar systems while keeping transactions visible to regulators.
No government is orchestrating the AI-dollar loop, the authors noted. Unlike the petrodollar, built on official agreements, the emerging system is being constructed through commercial decisions. Cloud providers secure land and power. AI firms package models. Payment groups build stablecoin rails. Stablecoin issuers buy Treasuries. Each step is logical on its own. Together they reinforce dollar dominance.
"Those who hope to shape the next chapter must act now, or risk being left off the page," the economists wrote.
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