
Perpetual futures open interest is climbing after $2T crypto wipeout. Analyst Jean-Luc Maracon says the rebound is borrowed conviction, not restored confidence.
Two trillion dollars in market value gone, and the traders are back. Perpetual futures open interest is climbing again, with fresh activity even as fear remains the dominant mood across crypto. Jean-Luc Maracon, a French-Swiss decentralized finance analyst based between Geneva and Paris, said the gap between sentiment and behavior is more telling than any price chart.
Perpetual futures let traders borrow to bet on price moves in either direction. Maracon wrote that the return to these markets after a contraction of this size is not a new pattern. He pointed to 2021, when heavy borrowing drove crypto to record highs until liquidations cascaded, and to 2018, when over-leveraged positions collapsed once the bull run lost momentum. The rebound in leveraged activity, he said, is borrowed conviction, not restored confidence.
Leverage amplifies gains and losses. Platforms that offer leveraged products tend to profit either way, because more trading volume means more fees regardless of price direction. Retail traders often carry the heaviest losses, Maracon said, especially in a market as volatile as this one.
His central warning is that sustained volume built on leverage rather than organic buying interest is fragile. Speculative positioning can hold a market together for a while. It is not the same as long-term holders building positions because they believe in the underlying assets. One group exits fast when conditions shift; the other does not. Right now, the first group is doing most of the work, Maracon said.
A regulatory shock or a macro shift can break the spell, he said. A large liquidation event has the same effect. Once the unwind starts, the pace accelerates.
The near-term signal to watch is open interest in perpetual futures. If it keeps climbing over the coming weeks and stays elevated, leverage-driven activity is not going away. A sustained buildup without a corresponding move in spot prices would be a red flag, he said.
Volatility in major cryptocurrencies is the second indicator. High volatility and high leverage together raise the risk of another sharp leg down, Maracon said. Regulatory responses in the U.S. and the EU are also in play; a market event of this scale tends to accelerate scrutiny of leveraged crypto trading, he said. Open interest figures over the next several weeks will probably settle the debate faster than any other indicator, Maracon said.
Fear at this level tends to create feedback loops. Nervous traders hold back new capital. Liquidity stays thin. Negative headlines hit harder than normal, and if leveraged positions start unwinding at scale, selling pressure compounds quickly.
The most telling detail, Maracon said, is the gap between trading behavior and underlying demand. Leveraged bets are not the same as organic buying. If the leverage gets stripped away through liquidations or regulatory action, what remains could be a much quieter market than current volumes suggest.
Some traders clearly see opportunity in the volatility, Maracon said. He cautioned that betting on short-term swings while fear dominates and $2 trillion has just been erased carries real risk. Maracon said the pattern fits how traders have re-entered crypto markets after previous drawdowns. "Anxiety is high. Prices just fell hard. And yet traders are adding leverage," he wrote.
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