A Bitget Wallet study found 60% of Polymarket bettors during the 2026 World Cup were new to crypto. The question is whether they stay or leave after the final whistle.
The 2026 World Cup turned prediction markets into an onboarding funnel. Sixty percent of bettors on Polymarket during the tournament had never used crypto before, according to a study by Bitget Wallet.
The finding cuts against the standard crypto adoption playbook. Most platforms demand that new users learn wallets, gas fees, and private keys before they can transact. Polymarket skips that. Bettors place wagers on match outcomes with a few clicks, using fiat or stablecoins. The simplicity attracts people who care about the event, not the technology.
"Users come because they have an opinion," said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet.
Kan's observation points to a structural advantage for prediction markets. They convert sports fans into crypto users without demanding a learning curve. The World Cup, with its global audience and high emotional stakes, amplified that effect. Volumes on Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi surged during the tournament, the study noted.
The question is what happens next. A user who placed a single bet on the final and never returned is not a retained customer. The study did not measure post-tournament activity, leaving the retention question open. Kan said the industry needs to offer clear value beyond the event to keep those users engaged.
Two scenarios emerge from the data. In the first, the World Cup serves as a funnel. New users explore other prediction markets, then move to trading or DeFi. In the second, they cash out and leave. The difference hinges on user experience and education, Kan said.
Polymarket's interface already lowers friction. The platform must now prove it can hold attention between major sporting events. The next test comes with the 2027 Cricket World Cup and the 2028 Olympics, both of which could generate similar onboarding waves.
Bitget Wallet's study did not track whether those users made additional crypto transactions after the tournament. That gap makes the retention rate an open question for the industry.
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