Looking at the SP500 Weekly chart, we have so far retraced about 11% from the top, and it doesn’t seem to be the bottom. The market appears to be going for another test of the 4200-4250 area. If the support breaks, we could reach the 4000-3900 zone.
If we try to simulate Covid not happening, consider that the market has seen a higher growth before Covid, take into account all other factors (FED, inflation, current tensions) and try to simulate longer-term behavior, it also brings us towards the 3900-4000 area.
The area of 3900-4000 seems to be where Weekly EMA200 would be touched, which SP500 likes to test. On top of that, the correction of SP500 would be close to 20%, which doesn’t sound unreasonable.
If SP500 weekly support at 4200-4250 breaks, it could take up until late May for the market to find the bottom and reverse the trend.
Better safe than sorry.
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