Falling house prices will help the Fed tame inflation – but they also increase the risk of a prolonged economic downturn

US home sales are extending declines as Federal Reserve tightening boosts mortgage rates. That has helped tame inflation, which is now retreating from four-decade highs. But a housing market slowdown also increases the risk of a recession. Loading Something is loading. Thanks for signing up! Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you’re … Read more

Don’t Buy The Hype: The Market Is Dropping (SPX)

D-Keine The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) has staged a significant 15% rally off the low at 3,500. Many quality stocks have appreciated by 30-50% or more. To put things in perspective, the SPX is currently about 15% below its ATH of around 4,800. Moreover, much of the recent gains in many popular stocks can be attributed … Read more

Weekly Indicators: Further Deterioration In Employment Indicators

PixelsEffect Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” … Read more